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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation saw its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The move to assault another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.