Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process
Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
