🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest shock.

However the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still