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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.